Graduations, lost draft picks and a deluge of trade deadline deals have gutted the Astros’ farm system. Outside publications peg it among the five worst in the sport, devoid of the kind of top-end talent that usually appears in top-100 industry rankings.
Perception sometimes does not match production. The team has produced a top-five finisher in American League Rookie of the Year voting during nine of the past 10 seasons, including Yainer Diaz’s fifth-place showing in 2023.
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Houston could enter spring training without a top-100 prospect, but dismissing the system entirely is unwise. J.P. France, Chas McCormick and Framber Valdez are among the onetime unheralded prospects who helped propel the 2023 Astros to the precipice of a pennant. The team’s apparent aversion to exceeding the luxury tax may only test prospect depth further.
Conversations with Astros officials and a glance at the team’s current roster construction produced this list of six prospects most likely to debut during the 2024 season and, perhaps, continue that aforementioned run on Rookie of the Year voting.
Spencer Arrighetti pitching for the Asheville Tourists. (Tony Farlow / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)After needing four starts to find himself, Arrighetti authored a breakout 2023 season that should make him Houston’s most major-league-ready pitching prospect entering spring training.
Opponents slashed .196/.303/.339 against Arrighetti during his final 24 appearances, 15 of which arrived in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League for Triple-A Sugar Land.
After yielding 18 earned runs in his first four starts of the minor-league season, Arrighetti allowed 43 across his next 24 outings — a 3.52 ERA that cemented him as a legitimate major-league prospect.
Provided he stays healthy, Arrighetti is the first in line for a spot start or a longer audition if a member of the rotation gets injured. The team had conversations about bringing him up last September, but a combination of the Astros’ precarious playoff situation and Arrighetti getting hit in the forearm by a comebacker scuttled it.
Corona is the only player Houston added to its 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft, which demonstrates how much he’s risen in the organization’s hierarchy. Still, of the six prospects listed here, Corona is perhaps the furthest from contributing at the major-league level.
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Including Corona is almost entirely a byproduct of his place on the 40-man roster, which makes it far easier for the Astros to summon him in an emergency. Corona is an elite defensive center fielder, but must refine his offensive approach to solidify himself as a major-league player.
Curtailing strikeouts should be Corona’s foremost objective. He punched out 136 times in 117 games last season between High A and Double A. Corona had a 20-homer season at Double-A Corpus Christi and stole 31 bases, but posted just a .325 on-base percentage with 127 strikeouts.
But if expected center fielder Jake Meyers struggles or is injured and Houston’s carousel at the position continues, Corona could profile as an in-season stopgap or insurance policy while the club contemplates its next move.
“The defense is pretty special. We really like the defense,” general manager Dana Brown said at the winter meetings. “He’s still pretty young. I think he’s a down-the-road everyday guy. I think it’s going to take a little time. But we certainly value the middle-of-the-field defense with (the) upside he has. We feel pretty good about it.”
Perhaps no position player prospect increased his stock more in 2023 than Loperfido, the former seventh-round pick who earned two in-season promotions and finished the year in Triple-A Sugar Land.
Loperfido started games at five positions: first base, second base and all three outfield spots. He slugged .548 with a .940 OPS in Double A and ended his season with a 32-game cameo at Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido’s batting average and contact rate decreased in Triple A, two traits he’ll need to rebound at the beginning of 2024.
That Loperfido hits left-handed and can move around the field will only increase his value to the major-league team. Michael Brantley’s departure leaves just three true left-handed hitters on the team’s 40-man roster: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Jon Singleton.
Singleton should begin the season on the major-league roster, but he is out of minor-league options and slashed .167/.258/.204 in his final 62 plate appearances last season. Singleton does not boast Loperfido’s defensive versatility, either. If Loperfido produces to begin the minor-league season, it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where he could add balance and a boost to the big-league bench.
Brown resisted moving Melton at last season’s trade deadline, instead packaging Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deal for Justin Verlander. In the aftermath, some inside the Astros organization said Melton ranked ahead of both Gilbert and Clifford in the team’s internal prospect valuations and rankings.
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Expecting them to say otherwise is foolish, but it’s clear Melton is the most ballyhooed prospect remaining in an otherwise barren farm system. The second-round pick should be the team’s top prospect when all outside publications begin publishing their rankings and — perhaps — the long-term answer Houston has been searching for in center field.
“He’s got a chance to be special. He was asked for in almost every trade talk — all teams were asking for him. That’s the one guy I was afraid to give away,” Brown told a team-run podcast this winter. “This guy has a chance to be a stud. If we can just clean up his approach a little bit, he’s got a chance to be really good. Really exciting player.”
Melton missed some time last season with a hamstring injury and has taken just 56 plate appearances above High A, meaning a strong start to his 2024 season is mandatory to make a major-league call-up a reality. Melton stole 46 bases, slugged .467 and sported an .801 OPS in 450 plate appearances across High A and Double A.
Last spring, no other Astros 2021 draftee earned an invitation to major-league spring training, where Wagner impressed the coaching staff with his makeup and aggressive offensive approach. There were whispers Wagner, the son of former Houston closer Billy Wagner, could challenge for a spot on the major-league bench toward the end of the 2023 season.
Wagner underwent hamate bone surgery in June to end that discussion. He returned to affiliated ball in August and ended his season with a six-game cameo at Triple-A Sugar Land, during which he went 15-for-26.
Wagner slashed .337/.420/.518, worked 35 walks and struck out just 50 times in 287 plate appearances across three levels last season. Almost all of Wagner’s value is tied to his bat, but the organization exposed him to first base, third base and second base, producing the type of versatility sought at the major-league level.
Wagner and Loperfido are in similar positions. Both hit left-handed, play all over the field and could plug holes on the Astros’ major-league roster. Minor-league production may determine which one gets the first call.
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It’s now or never for Whitley, who was once the top pitching prospect in all of baseball yet whose stock has plummeted amid a rash of injuries, ineffectiveness and a 50-game drug suspension before the 2018 season. Since 2019, Whitley has a 7.01 ERA in 129 2/3 innings of affiliated ball.
Whitley’s Astros tenure has now spanned four farm directors and three general managers, the last of whom remains bullish on the big right-hander’s potential. During the MLB Winter Meetings, Brown mentioned Whitley — without prompt — as an internal option for the team’s major-league bullpen.
Whitley has spent his entire professional career as a starter, but it’s clear Houston wants to extract any value it can from a pitcher in whom it has already invested $3.15 million. Converting him to a reliever is the easiest way to do so in 2024, especially for a team with a starting pitching surplus. Brown wanted to try Whitley in the big-league bullpen last season, too, but his recovery from a lat strain stalled, making that impossible.
Last month, Brown said Whitley is healthy — and an Instagram video of him touching 98 mph this offseason would seem to reinforce that. Whitley is expected to receive a fourth minor-league option year, Brown said, extending his stint on the 40-man roster for at least one more season.
(Top photo of Whitley: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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